Announcement of iMessage and the return of the rumor of a similar messaging system for Android have created a tidal wave of industry analysts, enthusiasts, and media talking heads calling for the death of SMS. The trouble is that everyone is making it sound like they are predicting the death of SMS. There is a big difference there, and one that is filled with far more nuance than would seem at first glance.
The difference is that no one really wants SMS as a communication tool to die, but everyone wants to end awful carrier fees. Everyone is also pointing in the wrong direction for the solution to this problem. iMessage, BlackBerry Messenger, the rumored Android offering, Kik, Beluga, Twitter, Google Voice, Facebook messaging and every single IM program in existence. All have been positioned to take down SMS and free us from ridiculous fees. But, all of those apps come with their own limitations and pitfalls.
The first three are (or would be) tied to specific operating systems. Each one inherently limits its potential audience. iMessage may be a threat to any lingering reason someone might have to stick with BlackBerry, but it poses no real threat to SMS as a communications tool. The next three: Kik, Beluga, and Twitter all rely on user adoption, because while the apps are multi-platform, they are still closed systems. Google Voice requires user adoption to use, lacks any attachment system, and isn't available outside of the US. Facebook is surprisingly the closest, because it is cross-platform, and can send or receive messages through Facebook, SMS or e-mail. But, as with all the rest, it still relies on user adoption.
